Sycon Wealth Newsletter Edition 1 2023

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As a new year begins, we wish everyone a happy, healthy and prosperous 2023. Many families will be glad to put 2022 behind them and although challenges remain, we look forward to better times ahead.

As 2022 drew to a close, investors remained focused on inflation, interest rates and recession worries. Inflation is running at around 7% to 11% in most advanced economies, including Australia (7.3%). The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifted its target cash rate by another 25 basis points to 3.1% in December, the eighth monthly rise in a row, up from 0.1% in May. The RBA noted that “inflation is expected to take several years to return to target range (2-3%)”, and most economists expect at least one more rate increase.

High inflation and borrowing costs continued to weigh on consumers in December. The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer price index was steady at 82.5 points in the run-up to Christmas, 26 points below the same period the year before. Slowing consumer demand and rising costs also dragged the NAB business confidence index into negative territory for the first time in 2022, down to -4.4 points in November.

But it’s not all bad news. Australian company profits rose 18.6% in the year to September, the fastest pace in five years. Unemployment remains low, despite edging up to 3.45% in November and annual wages growth was 3.1% in the September quarter, the fastest pace in a decade. The Aussie dollar lifted slightly to US68.13c in December, down 6% for the year. Iron ore prices lifted 8% over the month but were down 1% for the year, while oil prices (Brent Crude) eased slightly but were up 11.4% in 2022 as war in Ukraine disrupted supply.

Mortgage vs super

With interest rates on the rise and investment returns increasingly volatile, Australians with cash to spare may be wondering how to make the most of it. If you have a mortgage, should you make extra repayments or would you be better off in the long run boosting your super?

The answer is, it depends. Your personal circumstances, interest rates, tax and the investment outlook all need to be taken into consideration.

What to consider

Some of the things you need to weigh up before committing your hard-earned cash include:

Your age and years to retirement

The closer you are to retirement and the smaller your mortgage, the more sense it makes to prioritise super. Younger people with a big mortgage, dependent children, and decades until they can access their super have more incentive to pay down housing debt, perhaps building up investments outside super they can access if necessary.

Your mortgage interest rate

This will depend on whether you have a fixed or variable rate, but both are on the rise. As a guide, the average variable mortgage interest rate is currently around 4.5 per cent so any money directed to your mortgage earns an effective return of 4.5 per cent.ⁱ

When interest rates were at historic lows, you could earn better returns from super and other investments; but with interest rates rising, the pendulum is swinging back towards repaying the mortgage. The earlier in the term of your loan you make extra repayments, the bigger the savings over the life of the loan. The question then is the amount you can save on your mortgage compared to your potential earnings if you invest in super.

Super fund returns

In the 10 years to 30 June 2022, super funds returned 8.1 per cent a year on average but fell 3.3 per cent in the final 12 months.ⁱⁱ In the short-term, financial markets can be volatile but the longer your investment horizon, the more time there is to ride out market fluctuations. As your money is locked away until you retire, the combination of time, compound interest and concessional tax rates make super an attractive investment for retirement savings.

Tax

Super is a concessionally taxed retirement savings vehicle, with tax on investment earnings of 15 per cent compared with tax at your marginal rate on investments outside super.

Contributions are taxed at 15 per cent going in, but this is likely to be less than your marginal tax rate if you salary sacrifice into super from your pre-tax income. You may even be able to claim a tax deduction for personal contributions you make up to your annual cap. Once you turn 60 and retire, income from super is generally tax free. By comparison, mortgage interest payments are not tax-deductible.

Personal sense of security

For many people there is an enormous sense of relief and security that comes with having a home fully paid for and being debt-free heading into retirement. As mortgage interest payments are not tax deductible for the family home (as opposed to investment properties), younger borrowers are often encouraged to pay off their mortgage as quickly as possible. But for those close to retirement, it may make sense to put extra savings into super and use their super to repay any outstanding mortgage debt after they retire.

These days, more people are entering retirement with mortgage debt. So whatever your age, your decision will also depend on the size of your outstanding home loan and your super balance. If your mortgage is a major burden, or you have other outstanding debts, then debt repayment is likely a priority.

All things considered

As you can see, working out how to get the most out of your savings is rarely simple and the calculations will be different for everyone. The best course of action will ultimately depend on your personal and financial goals.

Buying a home and saving for retirement are both long-term financial commitments that require regular review. If you would like to discuss your overall investment strategy, give us a call.

i https://www.finder.com.au/the-average-home-loan-interest-rate

ii https://www.chantwest.com.au/resources/super-members-spared-the-worst-in-a-rough-year-for-markets

 

How much super do I need to retire?

Working out how much you need to save for retirement is a question that keeps many pre-retirees awake at night. Recent market volatility and fluctuating superannuation balances have only added to the uncertainty.

So it’s timely that new research shows you may need less than you fear. For most people, it will certainly be less than the figure of $1 million or more that is often bandied around.

For most people, the amount you need to save will depend on how much you wish to spend in retirement to maintain your current standard of living. When Super Consumers Australia (SCA) recently set about designing retirement savings targets they started by looking at what pre-retirees aged 55 to 59 actually spend now.

Retirement savings targets

SCA estimated retirement savings targets for three levels of spending – low, medium and high – for recently retired singles and couples aged 65 to 69.

Significantly, only so-called high spending couples who want to spend at least $75,000 a year would need to save more than $1 million. A couple hoping to spend a medium-level $56,000 a year would need to save $352,000. High spending singles would need $743,000 to cover spending of $51,000 a year, and $258,000 for medium annual spending of $38,000.ⁱ

While these savings targets are based on what people actually spend, there is a buffer built in to provide confidence that your savings can weather periods of market volatility and won’t run out before you reach age 90.

They assume you own your home outright and will be eligible for the Age Pension, which is reflected in the relatively low savings targets for all but wealthier retirees.^*

Retirement planning rules of thumb

The SCA research is the latest attempt at a retirement planning ‘rule of thumb’. Rules of thumb are popular shortcuts that give a best estimate of what tends to work for most people, based on practical experience and population averages.

These tend to fall into two camps:

• A target replacement rate for retirement income. This approach assumes most people want to continue the standard of living they are used to, so it takes pre-retirement income as a starting point. A target replacement range of 65-75 per cent of pre-retirement income is generally deemed appropriate for most Australians.ⁱⁱ
• Budget standards. This approach estimates the cost of a basket of goods and services likely to provide a given standard of living in retirement. The best-known example in Australia is the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) Retirement Standard which provides ‘modest’ and ‘comfortable’ budget estimates.ⁱⁱⁱ

SCA sits somewhere between the two, offering three levels of spending to ASFA’s two, based on pre-retirement spending rather than a basket of goods. Interestingly, the results are similar with ASFAs ‘comfortable’ budget falling between SCA’s medium and high targets.

ASFA estimates a single retiree will need to save $545,000 to live comfortably on annual income of $46,494 a year, while retired couples will need $640,000 to generate annual income of $65,445. This also assumes you are a homeowner and will be eligible for the Age Pension.

Limitations of shortcuts

The big unknown is how long you will live. If you’re healthy and have good genes, you might expect to live well into your 90s which may require a bigger nest egg. Luckily, it’s never too late to give your super a boost. You could:

• Salary sacrifice some of your pre-tax income or make a personal super contribution and claim a tax deduction but stay within the annual concessional contributions cap of $27,500.
• Make an after-tax super contribution of up to the annual limit of $110,000, or up to $330,000 using the bring-forward rule.
• Downsize your home and put up to $300,000 of the proceeds into your super fund. Thanks to new rules that came into force on July 1, you may be able to add to your super up to age 75 even if you’re no longer working.

While retirement planning rules of thumb are a useful starting point, they are no substitute for a personal plan. If you would like to discuss your retirement income strategy, give us a call.

*Assumptions also include average annual inflation of 2.5% in future, which is the average rate over the past 20 years, and average annual returns net of fees and taxes of 5.6% in retirement phase and 5% in accumulation phase.

i CONSULTATIVE REPORT: Retirement Spending Levels and Savings Targets, Super Consumers Australia

ii 2020 Retirement Income Review, The Treasury

iii Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) Retirement Standard

 

Strategies for long-term investing

Given the inherent volatility of security prices in capital markets, it is useful to remind ourselves of strategies that investors can utilise to meet their investment goals. This is important when constructing and positioning a diversified portfolio of assets, a challenge that most financial advisers face daily. Reminding ourselves of the fundamentals of portfolio construction can help investors position portfolios appropriately in times of crisis and volatility.

Exploit a long-run time horizon

Investors with a long horizon do not need short-term liquidity, giving them an edge during market sell-offs. As markets fall, long-run investors have often generated excellent returns by buying quality distressed assets across major asset classes.

Additionally, if the market rewards illiquid assets with a higher risk premium, it makes sense that investors over-allocate to such assets, as it is unlikely that they will need to sell during bouts of market volatility. Pockets of traditional asset classes like corporate bonds, small-cap equity, and emerging market equity offer the opportunity for long-run investors to generate superior returns over time.

Whilst many would like to describe themselves as long-term investors, this time horizon can shorten very quickly. During financial and economic turmoil, both institutional and individual investment horizons tend to shorten due to immediate cash flow needs or because of psychological factors. The last thing that any investor wants to do is sell an asset into a volatile and illiquid market, where bid–offer spreads can widen materially, and asset prices can fall well below fair value.

The free lunch

Diversification is the rare free lunch available for all investors: it can reduce portfolio volatility without reducing its return. A key challenge to achieving diversification is reducing the dominance of equity risk in a balanced portfolio. Even if diversification tends to fail in crises (as correlations spike across asset classes), it can still be useful in the long run. This matters more for long-run investors who face less liquidation pressure during market drawdowns.

Most portfolios have positive exposures to the equity market and to economic growth. This directional risk is difficult to diversify away, making those assets with a negative correlation to equities a valuable addition. Despite yields being at all-time lows, cash and high-quality government bonds and gold can play an important role to play in most portfolios.

Diversification, of course, has limitations, one of which is the tendency for correlations to approach one during crises. Many good fund managers distinguish themselves by managing downside risk instead of just relying on diversification. A strong risk management framework and avoidance of large drawdowns is key in generating good long-run compounded returns.

Risk-free is return-free

Developed market central banks have taken the actions that they have with a defined monetary policy transmission mechanism in mind. One of the channels of monetary policy is the asset prices and wealth channel, with lower interest rates and quantitative easing expected to spur demand for higher risk assets. Risk-free assets like cash and government bonds no longer generate a positive inflation-adjusted yield and are return-free. Long-run investors can position for ‘the portfolio rebalancing effect’ that is likely to dominate investment flows in the next decade.

Expected portfolio returns can be improved by increasing the weight of the most volatile asset class. The classic approach is to raise the weight of ‘high-risk, high-return’ equities and reduce the weight of ‘low-risk, low-return’ assets such as cash and government bonds. Taking more risk in this way, and getting rewarded for it, is an easy way to boost long-run returns for investors.

Minimising costs can come at a cost

Passive investing minimises trading costs. However, some costs are worth paying. For example, buying an equity index fund costs more than investing in a bank deposit, but the equity risk premium should make the cost worthwhile in the long run. In general, investors should allocate more to active products the less they believe in market efficiency. Minimising costs is not always smart; being cost-effective and avoiding wasteful expense is.

The importance of being selective

Market outperformance – through the compounding of returns – can help investors increase their ability to achieve their financial goals. Excess returns can be an important driver of wealth creation, and actively managed funds offer the opportunity to outperform the market. Even seemingly small amounts of excess return can lead to significantly better outcomes.

Over the intermediate term, asset performance is often driven largely by cyclical factors tied to the state of the economy, such as corporate earnings, interest rates, and inflation. The business cycle, which encompasses the cyclical fluctuations in an economy over many months or a few years, can, therefore, be a critical determinant of market returns.

As volatility is ever-present in capital markets, protection in the form of safe-haven assets and portfolio diversification will be increasingly important for investors. However, investors must now acknowledge that returns from defensive assets will likely be far less than historic averages. Due to central bank action, riskier asset classes like equities appear likely to attract increasing inflows over the coming decade. The traditional methods of portfolio construction – a long-run horizon, diversification, cost-control, and active investing – remain the best approach to generating sustainable long-run returns.

To find out more about diversifying your investments, please call us today.

Source:
Reproduced with permission of Fidelity Australia. This article was originally published at https://www.fidelity.com.au/insights/investment-articles/strategies-for-long-term-investing/

This document has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider these matters before acting on the information. You should also consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statements (“PDS”) for any Fidelity Australia product mentioned in this document before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. The PDS can be obtained by contacting Fidelity Australia on 1800 119 270 or by downloading it from our website at www.fidelity.com.au. This document may include general commentary on market activity, sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions that should not be taken as investment advice. Information stated herein about specific securities is subject to change. Any reference to specific securities should not be taken as a recommendation to buy, sell or hold these securities. While the information contained in this document has been prepared with reasonable care, no responsibility or liability is accepted for any errors or omissions or misstatements however caused. This document is intended as general information only. The document may not be reproduced or transmitted without prior written permission of Fidelity Australia. The issuer of Fidelity Australia’s managed investment schemes is FIL Responsible Entity (Australia) Limited ABN 33 148 059 009. Reference to ($) are in Australian dollars unless stated otherwise.

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